Analysts are piling on to the already expressed skepticism of U.S. lawmakers regarding optimistic claims being aired by Iranian officials. Newly inaugurated Iranian president Hassan Rouhani yesterday suggested that Iran is looking to resolve its dispute with the West within three to six months.
Bloomberg columnist Jeffrey Goldberg had already on Tuesday aired some doubts regarding “the sincerity of Iran’s protestations.” He outlined five reasons:
1. Rohani, so far at least, hasn’t indicated that Iran is open to reversing course on its nuclear program. He has actually said that the regime will not even talk about suspending uranium enrichment… 2. Compared to the previous president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rohani is a moderate, likable figure. But this is an example of defining deviancy down… 3. Having a nuclear arsenal is in the best interests of Iran’s rulers… 4. It’s true that the supreme leader has argued that the use of nuclear weapons is un-Islamic… I’d only point out that mass murder of innocent people is also prohibited by Islam… 5. The supreme leader is, in fact, the nuclear program’s chief backer.
Goldberg also suggests that the Iranians believe that, should they become a nuclear power, the international sanctions regime will gradually wither.
Based on the most recent report from the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the U.S.-based Institute for Science and International Security estimates that Iran will reach so-called “critical capability” – the ability to rush across the nuclear finish line before the West can detect and intervene – by mid-2014.
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