Iran is systematically pushing the limits of the nuclear deal it reached with world powers last year without facing significant resistance, a leading non-proliferation told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
Emily Landau, head of the Arms Control Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, offered her assessment in light of revelations last week that Iran’s negotiating partners secretly granted it exemptions from some of the obligations it assumed under the nuclear accord, which Tehran would have otherwise failed to fulfill in time to receive sanctions relief.
Landau described this and other incidents involving the nuclear deal over the past six months as evidence of “a continued struggle between Iran and the US. It is real, and is here. Iran is continuing to push the envelope, trying to get as much as it can, even within the confines of this deal.”
She said that the upcoming American elections and a new administration could present an opportunity for Israel to work more closely with the U.S. in developing responses to possible Iranian violations. “Israel can’t be satisfied with” U.S. assurances that Iran is complying with the deal, she said, as Washington seems to be overlooking a number of “worrying dynamics and other issues,” including the fact that the nuclear deal “is tremendously flawed.”
In addition to the exemptions, Landau noted that Iran was given permission to self-inspect the Parchin military site in another side deal it reached with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The United States was apparently not involved in formulating that deal.
These developments have put Iran on the path to be “much stronger vis-avis world powers [a decade from now]. Then, no one will be willing and able to stand up to Iran during the crunch time,” Landau said. Israel must pay attention to these incidents and not simply be reassured by declarations that Iran is technically observing the terms of the deal.
She added that as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have attained even greater control over the country since the nuclear deal, “there is no basis, right now, for dreams of moderation.”
In December, Landau critiqued the international community’s failure to insist that the IAEA fully investigate Iran’s past deceptions about its nuclear program.
In The Looming Global Nuclear Weapons Crisis, which was published in the January 2016 issue of The Tower Magazine, Landau emphasized the need for world powers to enforce the principles of nonproliferation and argued that the nuclear deal had weakened those principles.
At the end of the day, the global nonproliferation system depends, above all else, on the manifest will of the international community, and especially the permanent members of the UN Security Council, to maintain it. That important nonproliferation principles and standards have been seriously compromised in the framework of the JCPOA raises important questions about the fundamental commitment of these strong international actors to uphold nonproliferation standards over the long term. The problem is especially acute when the proliferator is not only dangerously challenging the NPT from within, but also is openly threatening neighboring states as well.
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