The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) solidifies Iran’s nuclear weapons program and allows Iran to build “ballistic missiles that could accurately deliver a nuclear warhead anywhere in the Middle East, Europe, or even the United States,” Michael Makovsky, CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) and former Defense Department official, argued Friday in an analysis written for The Weekly Standard.
Makovsky explained that there are three elements to a nuclear weapons program, including producing the fissile material and developing a detonator and delivery system. While the JCPOA limits the amount of fissile material Iran can produce and restricts its research into weaponization, it imposes no controls on Iran’s ballistic missile research.
Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology, until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier.
Notice that there is no actual mandate for or obligation on Iran in this language. Instead, Iran is merely “called upon” to refrain from pursuing ballistic missiles. This is why Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was able to call the provision “non-binding.” Further, the duration of the polite request that Iran forgo building missiles that can deliver nuclear warheads is supposed to last eight years. But it could be shortened by a finding from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). By issuing the so-called “Broader Conclusion,” a certification that it believes Iran’s nuclear program will be limited to peaceful uses only, the IAEA could eliminate whatever weak restrictions do exist on Iran’s ballistic missile program. There are no clear conditions for arriving at the Broader Conclusion—it is entirely at the discretion of the agency and its director. IAEA director Yukiya Amano has been muscular in pursuing Iran’s nuclear transgressions, but Amano will be gone in 18 months and whoever replaces him might be more lenient toward Iran.
Finally, a closer inspection of the sanctions relief that the JCPOA provides reveals that the deal actually lifts economic restraints put in place on Iranian entities tied to ballistic missile development. Although the deal claims that it lifts only “nuclear related” activities, the sanctions that are relaxed are in fact much more extensive. Consider Iran’s Defense Industries Organization, a company controlled by the Ministry of Defense charged with expanding Iran’s defense industry and arms exports. It has been sanctioned by the U.S., British, and Japanese governments as well as by the U.N. and EU for its role in Iran’s “development of nuclear weapon delivery systems.” It and nearly 40 other entities that were similarly sanctioned for their contribution to Iran’s ballistic missile program are delisted by the deal.
Makovsky pointed out that ballistic missiles are “a technology that has no reason to exist outside of a nuclear weapons program” and that the JCPOA delists many organizations actively involved in their development. The failure to limit Iran’s research into ballistic missiles means that Tehran could have the ability “to fire nuclear warheads at the American homeland” in little more than a decade.
Even though the State Department last year accused Iran of violating United Nations Security Council sanctions by pursuing ballistic missile and nuclear technologies, Iran insisted that its ballistic missile program was a “red line” that it would never compromise on.
Iran has continually refused to discuss its ballistic missile program in the course of negotiations, and experts have warned that failure to address the program could allow Iran to become a greater regional and international threat.
[Photo: BESA Center / YouTube ]