Der Spiegel yesterday published analysis – headlined in part “International Investors Flock to Tehran” – describing a scramble by companies and nations to re-enter Iran’s market in anticipation of the removal of sanctions. The paper quoted Daniel Bernbeck, head of the German-Iranian Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Tehran, characterizing the financial and economic opportunities potentially opening up as “chance of a century.”

But it looks like the nuclear negotiations could spark an economic upswing in Iran. Although none of the sanctions have been lifted, droves of Western business people are already flocking to Tehran. Iran has the world’s fourth-largest known oil reserves, and the second-largest gas reserves. Business deals worth billions of euros can be made here.

Now the planes from Europe are “full of Italians,” Bernbeck quips, including managers from Italian energy giant Eni. France is also on the move. In a deal worth billions, the French are about to renew their licensing contract for supplying Peugeot conponents to Iranian carmaker Iran Khodro. “And the Americans are already here with ExxonMobil, Chevron Corporation and other US companies,” he says, adding: “They are responsible for renovating the old oil production facilities and refinery industry, as well as exploring new oil fields. That’s a huge multibillion-euro business.”

The descriptions are in line with concerns, voiced explicitly and repeatedly by skeptics before and immediately after the announcement of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) between Iran and the P5+1 powers, that even the limited sanctions relief envisioned by the JPA would spiral out of control, as entities feared being left behind as Iran’s markets opened. The scenario was ridiculed as “fanciful” by analysts with ties to the Obama administration, who insisted that international investors would be foolhardy to flock to Tehran. There are direct political stakes involved in the policy debate over the robustness of the sanctions regime. A bipartisan group of senators, following the lead of the House of Representatives, recently introduced legislation that would impose new sanctions on Iran if the Islamic republic either cheated during the JPA’s six month negotiation period or, at the end of that period, refused to put its nuclear program verifiably beyond use for weaponization. The White House has fought those sanctions, insisting that the remaining sanctions on Iran are holding.

[Photo: The U.S. Army / Flickr ]