Analysts continue to unpack the implications of an interview given last week by Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad to Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV. On some issues – Assad was vague on whether advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles had yet been delivered from Russia to Syria. Regarding his desire to have the Arab world focus on Israel, rather than on the Syrian conflict which has now claimed some 100,000 lives, he was far more explicit:
The events in the Arab world during the past years have distorted concepts to the extent that some that the real enemy is still Israel and have instead created internal, sectarian, regional or national enemies. Today we pin our hopes on these resistance fighters to remind the Arab people, through their achievements, that our enemy is still the same.
Observers have outlined multiple scenarios under which the Assad regime might be motivated to launch attacks against Israel, especially if Damascus found itself on the brink of collapse. Syrian army officials may calculate that they are in a use ’em or lose ’em scenario with regards to Syria’s nonconventional arsenal, and launch chemical and biological weapons against Israel.
Damascus may also see a campaign against the Jewish state as a last-ditch effort to win over Arab sentiment, under which the Syrian regime and its Hezbollah allies would attempt draw Israel into the Syrian conflict in order to restore their sagging prestige and undermine Arab support for opposition forces. Arab media outlets have been conveying warnings from Damascus about opening up a “new front” on the Golan Heights for weeks.
Assad hinted as much in his interview, asserting that he was being urged by other Arab leaders to attack Israel:
In fact, there is clear popular pressure to open the Golan front to resistance. This enthusiasm is also on the Arab level; we have received many Arab delegations wanting to know how young people might be enrolled to come and fight Israel. Of course, resistance is not easy. It is not merely a question of opening the front geographically. It is a political, ideological, and social issue, with the net result being military action.
[Photo: Syria News / Youtube]