Last month analysts declared, based on an array of government statements, that Canada was rapidly losing patience with Iran. Earlier this week Ottawa’s stance became even more explicit with Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird declaring that if Israel acts unilaterally to degrade Iran’s atomic program, the Islamic republic would have only itself to blame:
Asked whether Canada would support an Israeli decision to act militarily, Baird said, “We are tremendously concerned about any unilateral action on Israel’s part. At the same time, if it does happen, there’ll be only one single actor to blame, and that will be the state of Iran.” The foreign minister elaborated: “We understand that every country has the right to stand up and protect itself.” But, he stressed, “We don’t support any unilateral military action.”
Baird also accused Tehran of dragging out negotiations and “doing all it can to waste time.” His statement echoed frustrations aired in recent weeks and months by U.S., E.U, and U.N. diplomats, Israeli officials, the head of the IAEA, top U.S. military officials, and most recently Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Yukiya Amano said last week that Tehran had “in the past” and was “now” conducting work “relevant to the development of nuclear explosive devices,” and subsequent talks over the weekend between the P5+1 and Iran ended with zero progress.
Analysts worry that Iran is using the time to lock in advanced critical infrastructure and develop a so-called “virtual arsenal.” That scenario would see the Iranians developing the material, facilities, and know-how to build a nuclear bomb within weeks of making a political decision to do so. In recent days, Iran has brought online new nuclear facilities — two uranium mines and a yellowcake processing facility — that will deepen those worries.
According to Iranian media, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued the order to start operations at the facilities as part of Iran’s National Day of Nuclear Technology. The Iranian president said in a speech that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure had become institutionalized:
Western nations have “tried their utmost to prevent Iran from going nuclear, but Iran has gone nuclear,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech at Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation on Tuesday. “This nuclear technology and power and science has been institutionalised … All the stages are in our control and every day that we go forward a new horizon opens up before the Iranian nation.”
Iranian media boasted that the new facilities will provide more uranium. Extracting yellow cake is one of the basic steps in uranium enrichment. The material is processed into a gas that is fed into cetrifuges, which sepeates out purer material for further enrichment.
In 2012 former IAEA Deputy Director-General Olli Heinonen emphasized that Iranian uranium enrichment “has no immediate use unless it is planning to make an atomic bomb.” In 2013 an IAEA report [PDF] noted that Iran had activated enrichment technology that rapidly increased its enrichment capabilities. A recent Wall Street Journal editorial warned of suspicious activity at Iran’s Bushehr plant, including Iran’s removal of spent fuel rods rather than returning them to Russia for storage as required.
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