Journalist Michael Totten, evaluating the situation from on the ground in Lebanon, reports that the country is “gearing up to explode” due to sectarian tensions ignited by the Syrian conflict across the border. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah has long been operating in Syria on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime that the rebels are trying to overthrow. Citing Hezbollah’s activities, Syrian opposition forces recently began shelling the group’s positions in Lebanon and threatening to take further actions.

Inasmuch as the Syrian opposition has become increasingly dominated by Al Qaeda-linked groups, rebel penetration into Lebanon likely also means Al Qaeda penetration into Lebanon:

There are strong indications that Lebanon is becoming a battleground for Al-Qaeda, Speaker Nabih Berri warned in remarks published Tuesday. “I read in an American newspaper that Lebanon has turned into a place for Jihad for Al-Qaeda and regardless of what I have read, all signs on the ground confirm this,” Berri told Al-Joumhouria daily. “It is enough to observe some of the phenomena and the way it is growing to realize that the Lebanese arena has become a fertile ground for these groups,” he added.

The politics of the controversy are tangled, since allies of the Syrian regime – including Hezbollah and its political allies inside Lebanon – have an incentive to link the Syrian opposition to Al Qaeda. Hezbollah backers have also tried to characterize the group as a guarantor of domestic stability, and Al Qaeda takeover scenarios help in that regard.

But suspicions of Al Qaeda activities in Lebanon go back years, and the group is undoubtedly trying to exploit the regional chaos to expand. In 2007 U.S. experts warned Lebanese officials that they needed to stem the rising tide of salafist jihadism in the country, lest the “violent movement solidifies, finds new leaders, and reaches organizational maturity.” Recent months have even seen reports of an Al Qaeda roadmap for taking over Lebanon.

Al Qaeda has also reportedly expanded the Syrian conflict into Iraq. The group is taking credit for killing 48 soldiers and state employees connected to the regime. With Syria-driven Al Qaeda activity in at least three countries, the notion that the Syrian conflict might spill over is no longer an open debate.

[Photo: ABCNews / YouTube]