The Daily Beast on Thursday cited a range of Western intelligence analysts converging on the assessment that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime not only has a secret cache of undeclared chemical weapons – which the outlet said included “crude chlorine-filled bombs, secret stockpiles of sophisticated nerve gasses or their components” – but also the stored institutional knowledge to “rebuild a larger-scale, higher-grade chemical weapons effort” once the international community has turned its attention away from Syria.

The outlet noted that widely broadcast reports regarding the eradication of Assad’s chemical arsenal only take into account “the chemical arsenal Assad admitted he had” as part of a deal under which Damascus agreed to turn over its chemical weapons in exchange for the West suspending what appeared to be imminent airstrikes.

The Daily Beast however conveyed that there there is “mounting concern that the Syrian regime may have a second unconventional weapons program—one Assad never told the international community about.” That program is thought by Western intelligence analysts to include biological weapons, undeclared chemical materials, and chemical weapons such as chlorine that are not outright banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC):

“But the U.S. France and UK contend they have intelligence that indicates Syria did not declare all of its CW materiel to the OPCW and continues to hide assets,” said the same official in an e-mail. “Those allegations remain to be examined and there are intensive discussions on options for doing that.” Because of these suspicions, the remaining 7.5 percent has become “like the fat lady at the opera, it ain’t over until Syria has completely fulfilled its obligations to disarm.”

“We know about the programs, we know about the people, and we know about the munitions,” an American intelligence official told The Daily Beast. “But the production quantity of materials? That’s the area where we’re the haziest. … Accountancy is a big issue. We have conflicting information and we don’t know what to trust.”

The news comes amid deepening worries among Western diplomats that Syrian forces have embarked on a campaign of using chlorine bombs to target civilians and fighters in rebel-heavy areas, a development that Foreign Policy had flatly stated if confirmed would “cast a dark cloud” over last September’s deal.

Meanwhile questions are also mounting about the regime’s willingness to turn over even its declared CWC-proscribed arsenal. Reports have been piling up that Assad is dragging his feet on the obligation – the question came up on Friday at a Department of Defense press briefing:

Q: John, can you comment on the chemical weapons removal process in Syria and the progress or lack of progress that’s been made there?

There’s been some speculation this week that they’re — that the Assad regime is dragging its feet to retain leverage in the future for the political process or just generally.

REAR ADM. KIRBY: Yeah, I’ve seen the press reporting on that.
Look, I mean, as you know, they’ve got roughly around 90 percent of the material out of the country. There’s somewhere between — well, a little less than 10 percent, I think, that we’re still hoping to, you know, to get out. And we have and will continue to urge them to move with some alacrity to get the rest of the material out so that we can begin the destruction process.
And — but — but look, it’s an ongoing process. It’s something we’re in constant discussion with the Syrian regime about. And we look forward to getting the remainder out so we can — so we can get to the business at hand.

Q: (inaudible) does DOD believe that the Assad government is intentionally delaying or slowing…

REAR ADM. KIRBY: I think it’s unclear right now, as to, you know, what the holdup is with this — this last bit of material. It’s unclear. And we’re in discussions with them as, of course, the OPCW is to work — to work through that.
And we all look forward to getting it resolved, to getting the material out of the country so that we can destroy it.

Reuters reported the same day that rebel forces have in the meantime closed in on the last known stockpile of Syrian chemical weapons.

[Photo: Freedom House / Flickr]