The Wall Street Journal yesterday published an extensive report, based on previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence, assessing that Hezbollah is smuggling advanced anti-aircraft, anti-ship, and surface-to-surface missiles into Lebanon.

The moves illustrate how both Hezbollah and Israel are using Syria’s civil war as cover for what increasingly is seen as a complex and high-stakes race to prepare for another potential conflict—their own—in ways that could alter the region’s military balance…Such guided weapons would be a major step up from the “dumb” rockets and missiles Hezbollah now has stockpiled, and could sharply increase the group’s ability to deter Israel in any potential new battle, officials say.

Israel has long emphasized that it will take military action to block the Iran-backed terror group from acquiring such game-changing weapons, amid continued boasts by top Hezbollah officials that the organization will saturation bomb Israeli population centers during future conflicts. Most immediately, and the Journal is explicit in conveying estimations saying as much, “Israel’s next air campaign… would have to be broad” to account for Hezbollah’s upgraded capabilities. The organization’s moves, however, risk introducing broader geopolitical, military, and diplomatic disruptions into the increasingly-unstable Levant. The Journal disclosed that “current and former U.S. officials say Iran’s elite Quds Force has been directly overseeing the shipments to Hezbollah warehouses in Syria.” Orde Kittrie – a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a tenured professor of law at Arizona State – pointed out this evening that the revelation puts Iran in violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1747, which orders Iran not to “supply, sell or transfer…any arms or related materiel,” and UNSC resolution 1701, which requires states to “prevent… [the] sale or supply to any entity or [individual] in Lebanon of arms and related material.” The ongoing violation of multiple UNSC resolutions may complicate Iran’s efforts to re-enter the international community as a member in good standing. Inside Lebanon, meanwhile, there has been growing opposition to Hezbollah in the wake of blowback generated by the group’s involvement in the Syrian conflict. Evidence that Hezbollah is also actively risking a conflict with Israel by testing long-established Israeli red lines is likely to deepen that opposition. For their part the Israelis may become wary of accepting international security assurances, including those that U.S. and E.U. diplomats might offer in the context of the peace process, in the face of evidence that the international security force deployed in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah arms smuggling has not been successful.

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