Syrian officials today announced that peace talks will take place – depending on the timing and source of the reports – either Nov. 23-24 or some time before the end of the year. Secretary of State Kerry pushed for the so-called Geneva II talks on Monday, stating that the purpose of the conference would be to prepare for a day after the Bashar al-Assad regime:
We also, expressing my own point of view – because he’s the negotiator and it’s not his point of view to say this – but we believe that President Assad has lost the legitimacy necessary to be able to be a cohesive force, that could bring people together, and that it is clear that in implementing Geneva 1, which is the only purpose for having the Geneva conference now, there has to be a transition government. There has to be a new governing entity in Syria in order to permit the possibility of peace.
The conference has faced difficulties. Assad stated two weeks ago that he will not negotiate with parties seeking to overthrow his regime, which ruled out – among others – the entire Syrian opposition.
Arab governments whose buy-in would likely be necessary for talks to succeed have in recent weeks expressed expressed irritation at what they believe to be over-effusive praise by the State Department of regime behavior.
Meanwhile the Western-backed opposition Syrian National Council yesterday announced that the rebel organization would be boycotting the talks because they would represent a strategy loss. The SNC is also locked in battles with increasingly strong elements to the extremes. The combination has cast additional doubt on the efficacy of any short-term negotiated solution:
But opposition divisions are now so deep as to cast serious doubts over whether any credible representatives will attend. The US, Britain, France and the Arab Gulf states are considering new aid and other incentives to ensure they do. The heart of the opposition’s dilemma at Geneva is the question of a transitional government and any role for Bashar al-Assad in it. Diplomats say the format will be similar to the 1991 Madrid Arab-Israeli peace conference with a grand ceremonial launch to be followed by detailed talks. Critics predict that any such process will go nowhere slowly and eventually peter out.
