Israel’s political and military echelons are deeply concerned with the unfolding, tragic events in Egypt. On July 3rd the Egyptian Defense Minister and Chief of Staff General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stipped the Muslim Brotherhood-linked government of President Mohammad Morsi of after massive protests called for the president’s removal. The action prompted weeks of protests from Morsi’s supporters, and nation-wide clashes between the army and demonstrators are ongoing. The Egyptian-controlled Sinai Peninsula, in particular, has been marked by deep unrest. Jihadists in the area have both attacked Egyptian troops and launched rockets at Israeli cities.
There is a pervasive, frustrated knowledge Jerusalem’s options are limited.
Arguably the best course of action Israel can pursue is to lower the country’s profile, sit, and do nothing. The strategy relies on the hope that somehow law and order will return and that the peace treaty between the two countries, which has survived for 34 years despite the occasional strain, will endure – at least for the foreseeable future.
Some of that may be wishful thinking. In the meantime Israel is seeking to limit the regional spillover from the crisis, even as it makes a point of not interfering in Egypt’s internal affairs.
The Sinai Peninsula was largely demilitarized as a condition of the Camp David Accords, and Cairo is obligated to consult with Jerusalem before moving certain heavy weapons and aircraft into the area. Israel has recently allowed the Egyptian army to deploy reinforcements to the territory, including armored vehicles and gunship helicopters, as the military has moved to uproot the Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist cells which have found shelter in the vast and sparsely populated desert.
Estimates of the jihadist presence in the area vary from hundreds to 3,000. Most of the terrorists and their facilitators are local Bedouins, but they have been backed by “volunteers” from Yemen, Somalia, Iraq – and by “defectors” from Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
Israel has exchanged intelligence with Egypt and has deployed the Iron Dome anti-rocket battery to protect Israelis near the Egyptian border, but has actively sought to avoid violations of Egyptian sovereignty. The fear is that Israeli actions on Egyptian soil would undermine Sisi in at least two ways: specifically in the Sinai, against the jihadists, and across the country, against the Muslim Brotherhood.
However, Israel has reportedly deviated from this policy at least once. A week ago, according to foreign media reports, an Israeli drone fired missiles and killed four terrorists on the Egyptian side of Rafah, a split town that straddles Egypt and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. The terrorists were preparing to launch rockets against Israeli territory, and were reportedly deemed a “ticking bomb.” Israel reportedly moved to preempt the attack.
Even then, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon – without taking responsibility – emphasized that “Israel respects and will respect Egyptian soverenignty”.
[Photo: sierragoddess / Flickr]