A recent survey found that Yemenis consider Iran to be their country’s Yemenis “number one enemy,” outpacing national antipathy for Israel and the United States. There’s a good reason for that:

An expanded roster of Yemen-based allies would give Tehran a lever against the U.S., which relies on Yemen’s government as both a hedge against Iran and a partner against al Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen. Iran could also turn to clients in Yemen as Syria’s war poses an existential threat to one of Tehran’s biggest regional allies, the Damascus government of President Bashar al-Assad.

“If the south of Yemen were to break away and become an ally of the Iranians, it would be a major strategic gain for Tehran,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow and director of the Brookings’ Intelligence Project, part of the Brookings’ Institute. “It might more than compensate for the loss of Syria if Assad’s government falls.”

In addition to fomenting internal instability in a Gulf state – something that Gulf countries have accused Iran of doing across the region – control over southern Yemen would provide Iran with a geopolitical upshot:

Western officials voiced concerns to the newspaper that Iran could “use military allies along Bab al-Mandab,” a strait that serves as one of the main chokepoints for the global shipping of oil. “If the Iranians are able to control Bab al Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz, they’d be able to have a chokehold on the global economy,” an unnamed Western diplomat told the paper.

[Photo: Al Jazeera English / Flickr]