Iran’s continued arming of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah means a large-scale conflict with Israel remains “a genuine possibility,” former State Department official Aaron David Miller wrote in an analysis for CNN on Thursday.

Miller, now a vice president and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, prefaced his observation by noting that Hezbollah’s recent actions suggest that it isn’t likely to instigate a war with Israel in the immediate future, and that the group pointedly attributed the recent death of its commander, Mustafa Badreddine, to Syrian rebels rather than Israel.

However, while this ensured that a war between Hezbollah and Israel was averted for the time being, the group might still seek to escalate hostilities once it is no longer subject to certain constrains, including the risks associated with opening a second front while it is invested in the Syrian civil war, Miller wrote.

In the ten years following its 2006 conflict with Israel, “Hezbollah has expanded its rocket and missile arsenal to 150,000, weapons, according to Israeli officials, including precision-guided systems that would put within range Haifa’s heavy industries; the Israeli Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv; Israel’s Parliament; and its nuclear reactors at Dimona.”

And though Hezbollah has not launched any major attacks against Israel since, its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, threatened in February to attack Israel’s ammonia storage tanks in Haifa, an attack that could kill tens of thousands.

Its involvement in the Syrian conflict has also ensured that “Hezbollah is battle hardened, tested and trained in offensive operations,” Miller added. Moreover, according to some assessments, the group may be planning cross-border incursions into Israel in the event of any future war.

“Hezbollah’s growing arsenal, combined with its conviction that fighting Israel is part of its identity and legitimacy, means that outright conflict is a genuine possibility,” Miller continued, concluding that the toll of any such war is likely to be high.

The Israeli military’s deputy chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, said last month that the next war between Israel and Hezbollah would be “devastating” due to Hezbollah’s widely-reported tactic of hiding military assets in civilian areas. An Israeli defense official told The New York Times last year that the buildup of Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure in southern Lebanese villages meant that “civilians are living in a military compound” and that their lives were at risk. A few days later, a newspaper linked to Hezbollah confirmed the Israeli assessment.

Reports emerged two years ago that Hezbollah was offering reduced-price housing to Shiite families who allowed the terrorist group to hide rocket launchers in their homes. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed unanimously to end the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, forbids the transfer of weaponry to Hezbollah. However, Iran has continued to arm Hezbollah and the Security Council has refused to act to enforce the resolution.

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