On Thursday, writing in Foreign Policy magazine, retired U.S. Navy admiral James Stavridis argued that the Arab League’s multinational response force, announced to address growing regional instability, will be established as a Sunni “army” to counter the rising power of Shiite Iran.
The Arab League’s response force, first reported in late March as leaders from across the Arab world met in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, will be reportedly headquartered in Cairo and commanded by a Saudi general, who will preside over 40,000 troops from “Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan (and a smattering of others from Gulf nations)”. According to Stavridis:
The idea is to pull together a multinational force that could be ready to react to future crises, in the same way that several Arab nations are currently conducting operations today in Yemen. Reports indicate that 500 to 1,000 men will be members in the air command; up to 5,000 service members will constitute the naval command; and roughly 35,000 will be part of the land forces. Like the NATO command structure, this Arab force will have specified warfighting components: air, sea, land, and special forces. The troops will be paid for by their respective countries, and the command structure will be financed by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Stavridis, who noted there were some precedents for such a force within the Arab League, including the various Arab coalitions that rose to attack Israel throughout the 20th century, argued that the response force is a direct reaction to Iran’s expansionist campaigns in the region, which will only intensify in the event that a nuclear deal with the P5+1 powers is finalized and the rigid sanctions that have sapped the Iranian economy are lifted.
In simple terms, the Arab League — essentially a Sunni club at this point given the political meltdowns in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria — is creating this army to face Iran.
This is particularly important for the Sunni Arab world given the distinct possibility of Tehran’s return to the world stage, if sanctions are indeed lifted. If that occurs, billions of dollars will flow into Iran’s coffers as its ability to trade freely internationally comes back online. While Iran may or may not be prevented from ultimately building a nuclear weapon, it most certainly will have a windfall of resources shortly, assuming the nuclear deal is finalized.
Stavridis emphasized that Iran’s revitalized economy will bolster the activities the regime has supported for the past couple of decades, namely, “to push the Shiite religious agenda, sponsor terrorism directed against Sunnis, Israelis, and the West (in roughly that order), and strengthen its already capable armed forces.”
Stavridis pointed to Iran’s effective control over five Middle Eastern capitals—Tehran, Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad, and Sanaa—which was acknowledged by Iranian parliamentarian Ali Riza Zakani this past November, when he said that the Islamic Republic had captured four Arab capitals.
According to Stavridis, Iran’s regional aggression serves to advance “the mullahs’ goal […] to push their version of Islam and to diminish the stature and status of their Sunni opponents: notably Saudi Arabia (which they see as vulnerable), Bahrain (which has an oppressed Shiite majority), and the Gulf States (which are small and close enough to be dominated).”
In assessing the most favorable course of action the United States should pursue in response to the formation of the response force, Stavridis suggested continuing existing military assistance programs, while providing intelligence and logistical support, as well as “cyber, special forces training, unmanned vehicles, and other ‘new triad’ systems that can be brought to bear without huge manpower commitments.” The multinational North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Stavridis argued, should also “make itself available — no pressure, just an offer — for advice, joint exercises, shared intelligence, material support, and general assistance.”
When it comes to Israel, Stavridis indicated that the formation of the Arab response force may help encourage greater cooperation between Jerusalem and Iran’s Sunni regional rivals, which possess a shared interest in combating the Islamic Republic’s expanding sphere of influence.
Is it possible that, over time, Arab concerns over Persian power grabs may actually supersede their antipathy for Israel? That seems unlikely, yet worth thinking about as this Sunni-Shiite divide unfolds. Egypt and Jordan have peaceful relations with Israel — and clearly the Gulf nations share Israel’s fear of a nuclear armed Iran. It is possible that, despite the nasty precedents of 1967 and 1973, a Sunni military coalition poised to counter Tehran might provide the basis for cooperation with Israel over threats from the Shiite world.
According to an unnamed Arab League source published in DefenseNews, details of the response force are still being discussed and “a meeting of Arab chiefs of staff will take place in Cairo at the end of April to finalize the agreement.”
In comparison to the Arab League’s upcoming force, NATO’s Response Force currently numbers around 25,000 troops. It is expected to grow to 30,000 with the ongoing establishment of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), which was initially announced in December of 2014. At the time, NATO’s move was similarly characterized as a reaction to a regional power’s expansionist campaign, with the interim force reportedly “intended as a temporary hedge against Russia’s more aggressive military posture.”
Sunni Arab states in the Middle East have long warned that they will act to counterbalance Iran’s aggressive behavior across the region. A February report in The Wall Street Journal emphasized their concerns regarding the reported nuclear agreement being negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 powers, noting:
The major Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have said that a final agreement could allow Shiite-dominated Iran, their regional rival, to keep the technologies needed to produce nuclear weapons, according to these officials, while removing many of the sanctions that have crippled its economy in recent years.
Arab officials said a deal would likely drive Saudi Arabia, for one, to try to quickly match Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
In March, the HIS, a leading analyst of the global arms market, revealed that in 2014 Saudi Arabia had surpassed India to become the world’s biggest importer of arms. In his historic speech to Congress earlier that month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the nuclear deal being negotiated with Iran will catalyze an arms race across the region, saying, “This deal won’t be a farewell to arms. It would be a farewell to arms control. And the Middle East would soon be crisscrossed by nuclear tripwires. A region where small skirmishes can trigger big wars would turn into a nuclear tinderbox.”
[Photo: Alyssa Bernstein / Flickr]