Lebanon marked the tenth anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on Saturday, bracing from the effects of numerous political and security challenges stemming from the Syrian conflict, infiltration by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and Iranian meddling.

All of Lebanon’s political factions took part in the events to mark the death of the Prime Minister, except for the Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is accused of involvement in the assassination with the help of the Syrian regime. Many politicians in Lebanon are calling for full disengagement from the Syrian regime and maintain an independent Lebanese foreign policy, away from regional alliances – including with Iran.

The Hariri assassination in February 2005 led to protests and international pressure that forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon after three decades of occupation. The Syrian military withdrawal gave the Lebanese people hope that their country would emerge from the sphere of influence of the Syrian dictatorship of Hafez al-Assad and, after his death, his son Bashar. But this hope was not realized. Since Hariri’s assassination, Lebanon remains split between an axis seeking freedom from foreign influence, and the Iranian-allied axis, which supports the Syrian regime and receives military and financial assistance from Tehran.

This split has pushed the country into a series of crises.

The division increased with the outbreak of the bloody conflict in Syria in March 2011, and especially after Hezbollah admitted that it has thousands of its troops fighting to prop up the Syrian regime. Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria opened the door to Islamist extremists threatening Lebanon, especially in the border area between the two countries. There have been several recent attempted infiltrations by extremists into Lebanon, which led to bloody battles with the Lebanese army.

The implications of the Syrian civil war don’t end with the security challenges, but also play into how Lebanon is governed. For the past eight months and for the first time since the end of its bloody civil war (1975-1990), Lebanon has had no president, due to Hezbollah blocking the appointment of anyone for the post.

“The country has deteriorated since the assassination of Hariri,” one of the local residents in central Beirut, where the former prime minister was assassinated, told the Al-Arab newspaper (Arabic link). Commentators believe that during the ten years since the assassination, Hezbollah and Iran have strengthened their role in the political life of Lebanon. Hezbollah, for example, frequently makes war and peace decisions on behalf of the country. A prime example is the 2006 war with Israel that Hezbollah initiated.

Hilal Hashan, professor of political science at the American University in Beirut, said the Hariri assassination was a “military coup in Lebanon.” He stressed that Lebanon had been on track for independence from Syria, but the assassination interrupted it and put it on an Iranian track. Daoud Al-Sair, former advisor of Hariri, believes that since the assassination, Lebanon has been forced to join the Shiite axis of Tehran, Damascus and Hezbollah, a trend that continues to this day. This trend is currently being repeated in Iraq and Yemen, where Iranian proxies increasingly hold power.

[ Photo: Peter López / Flickr ]