Iran, the main ally of the Syrian regime, is trying to bring Turkey into an alliance with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, according to leaked documents published in Al-Arab (Arabic link). The Iranians are doing this using a variety of methods, including emphasizing the growing conflict between the American and Turkish governments.
In recent days, a series of meetings was planned between officials from Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Officials in the three countries did not provide details of the contents of these meetings, but analysts believe that the meetings were intended to soften the Turkish government’s stance towards the Assad regime and persuade it to stick to the Iranian initiative to resolve the crisis in Syria.
Tehran recently announced a new four-pronged initiative, but did not provide further details on the proposals. According to some leaks, the initiative focuses on keeping Assad in power while reducing some of his responsibilities, primarily in the military and security sectors.
Iran is the main supporter of Assad, both diplomatically and militarily, allowing the Syrian regime to continue its fight against the rebels. Iran has helped the Syrian government recapture strategic places it lost in the first two years of the civil war.
Analysts attribute the Iranian rapprochement with Turkey to several factors, including Turkey’s belief that the international community, especially the United States, does not want the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This impression has been reinforced by their perception that American officials have said less and less lately about Assad’s removal from power.
Turkey has long been considered as one of Assad’s bitterest rivals in the region. Over the past few years, Turkey has allowed hundreds of foreigners to enter Syria through its border to fight Assad’s forces. Turkey also provided the anti-Assad fighters with training and housing. Ankara has demanded that American air strikes against ISIS also target the Syrian regime, and sought the establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria. Both these demands were rejected by Washington.
Turkey’s anger at the Americans subsequently increased, and it refused to take part in the anti-ISIS coalition. As a response to the Americans, Turkey began to make more open gestures towards Russia, as well as moves seen as supporting the Assad regime. During the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Ankara three weeks ago, some economic agreements were signed between the countries.
In addition to the Ankara-Washington friction over Syrian crisis management, Tehran has another card in its pocket – the Kurdish card. The common denominator between the Assad regime, Tehran, and Ankara is fear of Kurdish independence. This fear has increased in the wake of increased assistance the West has been giving the Kurds.
Turkey is adamant that Kurds not achieve autonomy, because it would open the floodgates to calls for secession of Kurds living in Turkish territory. This explains the non-participation of Turkey in the battle against ISIS in Kobani, despite Western pressures.
All these factors are pushing Tehran to make new overtures to Turkey to coordinate their efforts in Syria, especially in light of Turkey recently moderating its aggressive statements against the Syrian regime.
[photo: Truthout.org / Flickr]