Following Wednesday reports that Tehran is pouring assets into Iraq, analysts are raising concerns that Iranian efforts in the country, which in recent weeks has seen Sunni extremists overtake portions of the country, could complicate U.S. moves aimed at restabilizing the Iraq.
Ephraim Kam, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former colonel in colonel in the research division of IDF Military Intelligence, on Thursday warned that increased Iranian involvement will harden sectarian divisions in the country, amid the ongoing seizure of Iraqi territory by Sunni fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS):
Iran’s goal in Iraq was to build a weak and non-threatening but stable and unified country, dependent on Iran and led by a Shiite majority connected to Iran. To this end, Iran used its ties with many Shiite elements in Iraq, including armed militias, political leaders and parties, clerics, and economic institutions, and nurtured these connections through military and financial aid. This influence had limits, primarily because Shiite institutions had an interest in not being excessively dependent on Iran, and Sunnis had reservations about Iran. However, in all, Iranian involvement in Iraq has been unprecedented in the bilateral relations, and testifies to Iraq’s weakness and the Shiites’ historic rise to power in the country.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, predicted that Tehran will “fan the flames of sectarian war in both Syria and Iraq… [and] reflexively try to find common ground with jihadists in anti-American rhetoric.”
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs analyst Pinhas Inbari emphasized that – more broadly – the Iranians and Americans are fundamentally split on the strategic level, contrasting Washington’s efforts to establish a robust Iraqi central government with the Iranian preference for “Iraq to become a subservient client state”:
The idea that the West could make common cause with Iran against ISIS, against the background of the Iraqi crisis, is based on the assumption that Tehran is implacably hostile to al-Qaeda and its affiliates, and to ISIS in particular. There is ample evidence, however, that this assumption is wrong. Going back to the 9/11 Commission Report, it has already been established that Iran even “facilitated the transit of al-Qaeda members into and out of Afghanistan before 9/11, including future hijackers. Iran, according to the report, wished to conceal any past evidence of its cooperation with Sunni terrorists’ association with al-Qaeda,” but these connections continued.
Expecting Iran to fight ISIS entails turning it against a movement that has served it, at times as a useful surrogate. Any such alliance between the West and Iran could easily break down, given Middle Eastern realities on the ground, giving the Western powers a share of responsibility for whatever courses of action Iran ultimately decides to pursue.
[Photo: Foundation for Defense of Democracies / YouTube]