A leading scholar of the Middle East has proposed that the key to understanding how the middle east affects U.S. interests lies less in Al-Qaeda and its affiliates and more in the expansionist efforts of the Iranian regime. Lee Smith, author of The Strong Horse and a senior editor at The Weekly Standard, fleshed out his analysis in the course of an interview with Michael J. Totten in World Affairs. After noting that “Iran is building a replica of Hezbollah on the Syrian border, on the Golan Heights[, and] Iran has replicated the Hezbollah model in Iraq,” Smith observes more generally towards the end of the interview:

The real problem is that an Iranian nuclear weapon would give Iran the ability to destabilize the Middle East whenever it wants. Look at what Iran is doing around the region. That’s also what my book is about—Iranian expansionism across the Middle East. That’s the real problem.

The bulk of the interview, which coincided with the publication of Smith’s book, The Consequences of Syria, was the author’s critique of the Obama administration’s policy towards Syria.

What we now realize is that the president does see Syria in a strategic framework. He sees that the Syrian regime is an important ally of the Iranians and doesn’t want to be seen toppling the regime for fear of angering the Iranians.

Smith pointed out other ways the administration has sided with Iran and its allies, including its support of Lebanese Armed Forces’ military intelligence, which is controlled by Hezbollah, and its support of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s anti-Sunni policies even as Maliki allied himself with “Iranian-sponsored terrorist groups with American blood on their hands.” In the latter case, Smith explained how the support of Maliki’s policies undid the benefits of the surge.

Let’s be a bit more specific. What we’re seeing in cities like Mosul is a Sunni rebellion against Maliki and the Iranians. In addition to ISIS, there are also former Baath party figures, like one of Saddam’s deputies, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, as well as Sunni tribes. ISIS would appear to be playing the role of Sunni shock troops, who are dispatched to the fronts to terrorize and create havoc. Behind them are the Baathis and the tribes. It was Maliki and the Iranians, in particular Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, who made this possible.

The American-led surge of 2006-7 was a success because it got the tribes to fight, and defeat, Al Qaeda in Iraq. What Maliki and the Iranians have done is unite the tribes and ISIS through their anti-Sunni policies. And so now the administration has a dilemma. As it has argued repeatedly regarding Syria, from their perspective the big issue in the Middle East is counter-terrorism against Al Qaeda and the Sunni jihadis. There’s no doubt Al Qaeda is a problem for the United States, but it’s not a strategic threat like Iran and the Iranian resistance axis.

Smith faults successive American administrations dating back to Ronald Reagan for failing to confront Iran. He argues that the only way to contain Iran is by projecting a “powerful American presence in the Middle East” and “to take Iranian threats against Israel seriously and … to take the concerns of America’s Gulf Arab allies seriously.”

As Shai Oseran and Stéphane Cohen wrote in Don’t Be Fooled. Hezbollah Is Bigger and Badder Than Ever, which appeared in the March 2014 issue of The Tower Magazine, “For all intents and purposes, Iran is now sitting on Israel’s northern border, making the Iranian nuclear threat a lot more immediate for Israeli decision-makers.” In Confidence Game: Losing American Support, the Gulf States Scramble, which appeared in the February 2014 issue of The Tower Magazine, Jonathan Spyer wrote of the Obama administration’s new approach to the Middle East: “These new policies have produced deep concern and, in some cases, a search for realignment among key members of the bloc formerly led by the U.S. These key members are Israel, the military regime in Egypt, the Gulf monarchies, and Saudi Arabia.”

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