An American delegation headed by National Security Adviser Susan Rice is heading to Israel later this week to discuss the upcoming P5+1 negotiations with Iran, scheduled to take place next week in Vienna. Lead American negotiator Wendy Sherman and other high-ranking administration officials will accompany Rice. They will primarily be meeting with Israel’s National Security Adviser Yossi Cohen. Rice is also expected to meet separately with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Vienna talks are expected to focus on drafting the terms of a permanent deal with Iran for scaling back its nuclear program and preventing it from developing nuclear weapons.
A senior Israeli official said that the discussions with Rice are intended to tighten the coordination between Israel and the U.S. in advance of the drafting of an agreement with Iran. Israel’s public position is to reject any compromise with Iran and demand total dismantling of all centrifuges, the underground enrichment facility in Qom, the heavy-water reactor in Arak and the stockpile of enriched uranium that Iran currently has in its possession. …
Of primary concern to Israel is a reduction in the number of active centrifuges that Iran is able to maintain under the permanent agreement. Israel is concerned that the international powers, primarily the U.S., are over-eager to reach an agreement with Iran and might, as a result, allow Iran to keep a large-scale centrifugal capability that would enable a speedy breakout to 90% uranium enrichment, which is necessary for the development of nuclear weapons.
Israel and other American allies are concerned that a deal with Iran may not adequately address Iran’s nuclear breakout capacity. An analysis by the Institute of Science and International Security (ISIS) estimates that Iran “would minimally have to remove 15,000 centrifuges, shut down its uranium enriching underground military bunker at Fordow, downgrade the reactor at its plutonium-production facility at Arak, and agree to a 20-year inspection regime.” Iran’s leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a former nuclear negotiator, rejected the idea of dismantling any centrifuges.
For an in-depth look at the long-term impact of a weak Iran nuclear deal, see Emanuele Ottolenghi’s essay How A Weak Iran Deal Makes Us All Less Safe and War More Likely in the January 2014 issue of The Tower Magazine.
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