The Syrian army’s capture of what had been the rebel stronghold of Yabroud – accomplished with critical assistance from Hezbollah, to the point where the battle is being grudgingly described on social media as a “triumph” for the Iran-backed terror group – is likely to increase blowback against Lebanese targets, according to assessments conveyed on Tuesday by Lebanon’s Daily Star.
Hezbollah’s victory in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Yabroud is likely to increase security incidents and widen the sectarian divide in Lebanon, while boosting chances that the party’s popular base will be targeted by more terror attacks, analysts and experts said. Yabroud’s fall has likely driven a “significant” number of rebels affiliated with radical groups such as the Nusra Front into Lebanon while failing to secure largely porous borders, they said.
“Yabroud represents Hezbollah’s second major strategic and symbolic victory against opposition forces in Syria,” said Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center who has studied the insurgency in Syria extensively. “Their lead role in Qusair effectively secured them target status inside Lebanon, and this victory in Yabroud will undoubtedly consolidate that status.”
Lebanese leaders, including Shiite religious figures, had long ago begun calling on the group to untangle itself from the Syrian conflict, lest it generate further retaliatory attacks. Hezbollah leaders, up to and including the party’s chief Hassan Nasrallah, had instead doubled down on their involvement on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
The consequences of the recent battle are likely to be regional. Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted yesterday that “in securing control of Yabroud and its environs, Hezbollah has effectively established two adjoining Iranian enclaves on the eastern Mediterranean, securing a critical Iranian logistical route to transfer advanced weapons systems that will place Israel in immediate danger.” Badran also suggested that Hezbollah’s attention would now turn to the Lebanese border town of Arsal.
The next immediate target for Assad and Hezbollah, however, may be the Lebanese town of Arsal in the northern Bekaa Valley. It has been in the crosshairs of the regime and Hezbollah for more than a year. Assad’s air force regularly strafes the town, while Hezbollah propaganda describes it as major conduit for the Salafi Jihadi factions that have attacked the Shiite group’s areas in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has enlisted the help of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in the battle for Arsal. This is part of Hezbollah’s designs for the newly formed “national unity” government, whose priority is to combat “terrorism” – mostly directed at Hezbollah and Iranian targets.
News emerging from Lebanon on Tuesday indicated that Hezbollah has in fact moved to seal off Arsal, risking what Lebanese opponents described as a potential “civil war.”